Issue #13: Will Your CFO Enforce a One-Year AI Payback?

:Hey High Stakers,:

Good morning and welcome to the 13th issue of High Stakes!

Quick Brief

Enterprise CFOs are increasingly demanding clearer, shorter-term returns from AI investments. 

Recent KPMG research highlights that 68% feel investor pressure to show ROI from GenAI investments, and 73% plan to track profitability improvements as a core ROI metric.

In this issue, we examine:

• The prevalent issue of AI portfolio bloat.

• CFO-driven frameworks emphasizing rapid returns.

• Practical scoring criteria CFOs use for AI initiatives.

• Navigating stringent kill-or-scale decision gates.

• A proprietary case study on invoice matching AI.

Let’s explore why CFOs are sharpening their expectations and how enterprises can strategically respond.

Addressing Portfolio Bloat

Enterprises frequently grapple with expansive AI portfolios filled with pilots and proofs-of-concept that fail to yield measurable benefits. 

CFOs increasingly demand evidence-based validation and tangible outcomes from AI investments.

How Did We End Up Here?

The current bloat in enterprise AI portfolios didn’t emerge in a vacuum. 

It’s the result of converging trends and incentives that quietly built up over the past decade:

• Innovation FOMO: Pressure to experiment with AI outpaced financial discipline. Boards and exec teams were sold on transformative AI narratives but often skipped the harder questions about ROI.
  

• Proof-of-Concept Proliferation: Early wins in small pilots created a false sense of momentum. Budgets were greenlit for expansions, but these projects rarely moved beyond sandbox value.
  

• Siloed Ownership: Fragmented lines of business each launched their own AI pilots, marketing here, ops there without a unifying CFO-backed framework. Duplication and overlap became the norm.
  

• Loose ROI Governance: CFOs initially took a hands-off approach, treating AI as innovation spend rather than capital allocation. This leniency allowed low-ROI pilots to stack up.
  

• Shifting Market Pressures: As the economic environment tightened and AI’s compute bills soared, CFOs pivoted from innovation enabler to gatekeeper, demanding hard ROI and kill-or-scale discipline.

These factors collectively turned early experimentation into a patchwork of initiatives - some with promise, many without. 

We’ve seen this cycle before with Cloud adoption too. Enterprises that learned to treat cloud as a financial asset (not a pure IT expense) emerged stronger. The same is now true for AI. 

CFOs are bringing AI under disciplined financial governance to ensure it earns its keep.

CFO Expectations: Short-term ROI Gains Momentum

Key findings from the Q1 2025 KPMG’s AI Quarterly Pulse Survey indicate:

• 68% feel investor pressure to show ROI from GenAI investments

• 73% plan to track profitability improvements as a core ROI metric
  

CFO Scoring Criteria for AI Initiatives

CFOs use structured criteria to evaluate AI projects:

• Cost Reduction: Direct operational savings.

• Revenue Growth: Measurable impacts on sales efficiency or growth.

• Risk & Compliance: Enhanced compliance and reduced audit risks.

Gain deeper insights from Basware's study on CFO attitudes toward AI ROI: Basware CFO AI Investment Attitudes.

Navigating the Kill-or-Scale Decision Gates

CFO-driven decision frameworks typically include:

• Immediate Scale: Projects clearly demonstrating short-term ROI.

• Conditional Approval: High-risk initiatives require explicit CFO support with clearly defined targets.

• Termination: Projects lacking clear, immediate ROI pathways.
  

The CFO Perspective: Balancing Innovation and ROI

CFOs strongly advocate for innovation under stringent financial management. 

The heightened emphasis on tangible, immediate outcomes over abstract strategic values aligns with current financial executive priorities.

Stack’s Proprietary Case Study: AI Invoice Matcher

From our proprietary engagements:

• An AI-powered invoice matching solution eliminated manual tasks equivalent to 3 FTEs.

• Invoice processing improved by 70%.

• Verified ROI reached 2.1x within nine months.

Note: This case study reflects direct client experience.

Join the Discussion

Is your organization experiencing similar ROI-driven pressures? What ROI timelines does your CFO expect? Share your experiences and insights. 

Best,
Srini

P.S. Is your AI portfolio ready for CFO scrutiny? The one-year ROI clock is ticking. Treat every pilot like it’s on probation because it is